Why Paraguay is One of the Safest Places on Earth During a Nuclear Event - and How a Small Farm Can Change the Game even Further

Editors note:

The fact that I just wrote this headline tells us the world is in a strange place. When I was growing up in the 1980's I watched the film "The Day After" about living after a nuclear blast. No surprise I guess, perhaps a similar time - Cold war still in play, stagflation, 15% interest rates, Oil crisis and oil rationing. While the lyrics are different the tune is the same today.

But this is topical given the world today including world events and the US threats to Venezuela, and relevant to Paraguay which is the country I spend most time in.

This list was pulled together with the help of IA, but was prepared not for this blog but for my own personal use, and so it also includes some considerations related to not just how Paraguay would fare, but also to illustrate how a small farm (like mine) in this environment would fare, and what I should be thinking about in my contingency planning.

But it also reminded me we all need to have a comfortable end game in sight. in case the location we choose to sit out this tumultuous period in history, itself becomes a target or secondary impact zone, we need resources set aside and a plan to exit to that area to somewhere better. For those of you who believe we may have a solar event between now and 2035 you are probably already time sequenced.

Without further ado, I hope the following is useful.

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This article explores two themes:

1. Why Paraguay is relatively insulated from the worst effects of nuclear or EMP events, especially compared to more industrialized regions.

2. How farm-level self-sufficiency and redundancy further increase resilience, even in severe global disruption scenarios.

   
   

Why Geography Matters — and How Rural Self-Sufficiency Changes the Equation

From a geographic, atmospheric, and geopolitical perspective, Paraguay sits in one of the safest regions in the world relative to direct nuclear effects and long-term fallout.

But “safe” does not mean immune. The real risks are indirect: infrastructure disruption, supply chain failure, and social instability. This article looks at why Paraguay is comparatively protected, and then examines what actually matters at the farm and household level when planning for resilience.

Part I — Paraguay’s Relative Safety in a Nuclear Event

1. Distance from Likely Targets

Paraguay is far removed from:

• Nuclear powers

• Major military bases

• Strategic naval routes

• Industrial mega-centers

• High-value political capitals

  
  

Even within South America, the most plausible “hotspots” — northern Venezuela, parts of Brazil’s coast, or extra-regional naval targets — are thousands of kilometers away.

That distance matters enormously for:

• Blast effects (irrelevant at this range)

• Thermal radiation (irrelevant)

• Prompt radiation (irrelevant)

• Most fallout scenarios (greatly reduced)

2. Wind Patterns Favor Paraguay

At a continental scale, Paraguay’s air typically comes from:

• The northeast (Atlantic / Amazon moisture corridor) during normal conditions

• The south or southwest during cold fronts from Argentina

A macro-scale wind rose for Paraguay would show:

• Seasonal dominance of NE winds (warm, moist) during the rainy season

• Frequent S/SW winds during cold front passages in cooler months

• Intermediate and variable winds at other times

What it does not receive:

• Direct Pacific air (blocked by the Andes)

• Persistent northward airflow from Caribbean or northern South America ( cut off by north/south hemisphere wind pattern separation. The top part of South America (Venezuela and Columbia) are actually north of the equator so wind patterns would be separate from the southern hemisphere and Paraguay).

  
  

So for regional atmospheric transport, Paraguay is not downwind of obvious continental hotspots.

This means that even a nuclear event in northern South America (e.g., Venezuela) would be extremely unlikely to send meaningful fallout toward Paraguay. Particles would disperse, dilute, and precipitate long before reaching Paraguay.

➡️ Paraguay is one of the safest countries on Earth from direct radioactive fallout.

3. Hemispheric and Global Circulation

On a global scale:

• Atmospheric circulation tends to remain within hemispheres

• Cross-equatorial mixing is limited and slow

• Most particulate matter migrates poleward, not equatorward

  
  

Paraguay’s subtropical latitude places it:

• Far from Arctic-style nuclear winter concentration zones

• Far from high-latitude stratospheric trapping regions

• Outside the most extreme sunlight-blocking scenarios

  
  

In short: Paraguay would experience attenuation, not amplification, of global atmospheric effects.

4. Nuclear Winter: Reduced but Not Zero Risk

Nuclear winter is not fallout. It’s about:

• Massive fires globally

• Soot (black carbon) injected into the stratosphere

• Global sunlight reduction

• Temperature drops

Once material reaches the stratosphere, local wind patterns matter much less.

Most nuclear winter models show:

• Northern Hemisphere:

  • Severe cooling (−5°C to −15°C)

  • Crop collapse

  • Multi-year growing season failure

• Southern Hemisphere:

  • Less cooling

  • More ocean moderation

  • Faster recovery of sunlight

    
    

This is because:

• Most targets are in the north

• Soot is injected mainly into the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere

• Cross-equatorial transport is slow (months to years)

  
  

Paraguay benefits from:

• Being far south of the equator

• Being landlocked but subtropical

• Not relying on high-latitude growing seasons

A full, large-scale global nuclear exchange could reduce sunlight worldwide. Paraguay would not be immune, but it would likely experience:

• Reduced solar output rather than total collapse (5-20% reduction)

• Rainfall disruption rather than absolute drought

• Cooling without catastrophic freezing.

  
  

This makes agriculture more difficult, but not impossible, especially where water access exists.

South Pole accumulation

Even when the atmospheric ash starts to mix from northern to southern hemisphere over time:

• Aerosols tend to migrate poleward

• The Antarctic vortex can trap material

• Southern Hemisphere soot may preferentially accumulate near high latitudes

  
  

This helps Paraguay, because:

• Paraguay is far from the Antarctic circulation cell

• It sits in a mid-latitude subtropical zone, which tends to recover earlier

Why Paraguay fares better than average

• Close to the equator → higher baseline solar input

• No snow-albedo feedback loop

• Agriculture already adapted to heat variability

• Long growing season

• Multiple protein sources (animals, not just grains)

  
  

Even under pessimistic models:

• Temperature drops in the tropics are smaller

• Photosynthesis declines but does not collapse

• Rainfall changes are more damaging than cold

  
  

The real agricultural risk

Not cold. Not radiation.

Rainfall disruption.

• Monsoon shifts

• Delayed rainy seasons

• Irregular storm intensity

> Mitigate with groundwater.

Comparative safety ranking (very rough)

For nuclear winter resilience, relative, not absolute:

Best positioned regions

1. Southern South America (Paraguay, Uruguay, parts of Brazil)

2. New Zealand

3. Parts of southern Africa

4. Some equatorial regions (with caveats)

   
   

Worst positioned regions

• Northern US / Canada

• Europe

• Russia

• China

• Northern grain belts

Key caveat: global systems collapse matters more than climate

Even if Paraguay can still grow food:

• Global trade would collapse

• Fertilizer availability could drop

• Fuel shortages would matter

• Political stability regionally matters

  
  

This is where self-sufficiency, both at the country level and the individual level, is far more important than wind patterns alone.

Paraguay consistently ranks near the top in academic resilience discussions, mainly because:

• Distance from targets

• Favorable latitude

• Existing agricultural knowledge and resources

• Low population density

• Water availability

• Hydro power generation

5. EMP risk

EMP is global-scale only in the sense of electronics, not atmosphere.

EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse)

• High-altitude nuclear detonations can produce EMP effects over huge areas

• Effects depend on:

  • Altitude

  • Latitude

  • Line-of-sight to the burst

  • Electrical infrastructure coupling

Key factors:

• High-altitude nuclear EMP effects are strongest at mid-latitudes

• Near-equatorial regions experience weaker coupling into long conductors

• Distance from likely detonation points further reduces risk

Implications for Paraguay

• Paraguay is less exposed than high-latitude regions

  • The strongest EMP coupling occurs at mid-to-high geomagnetic latitudes

• Sparse infrastructure and lower grid density also reduce cascading damage.

An EMP detonated anywhere near Venezuela is unlikely to be an Electric Vehicle killing event in Paraguay, unless it is plugged in to the grid at the time.

EMP is a global-conflict risk, but not location-optimized against Paraguay in the way it would be against North America or Europe.

So again: lower relative risk, not zero.

Energy Resilience: Hydroelectric Advantage

Paraguay’s most decisive advantage is energy:

• Itaipú and Yacyretá provide massive hydroelectric generation

• Hydroelectric systems are:

  • Not fuel-dependent

  • Resistant to supply chain collapse

  • Largely EMP-tolerant compared to fossil-fuel grids

Even if international transmission, telecommunications, or digital systems failed, domestic power generation could continue, at least partially.

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If Paraguay as a country is less affected on each of these levels, and basic agriculture, and infrastructure remains relatively intact, it produces food for export far beyond its own internal needs, and sits on one of the largest aquifers in the world for groundwater, and its hydro dam electricity would likely survive an EMP, even if some transmission lines did not.

Therefore the overall resilience of the country may temper some of the secondary level issues such as basic law and order and hungry population looking for food.

Would Paraguay “retain order” as a country?

More likely than most

Structural strengths (rare globally)

• Food surplus

  • Net exporter of beef, soy, grains

  • Large smallholder farming base

• Water surplus

  • Rivers + aquifers

  • Hydroelectric generation

• Energy independence

  • Itaipú + Yacyretá

  • Very low reliance on fossil fuel for electricity

• Low strategic value

  • No nuclear targets

  • No major military installations

• Low population density

  • Less immediate stress on systems

Because of this, Paraguay is far less fragile than most countries in a systemic global shock.

 Would the hydroelectric system still work?

Very likely yes, at least in large part.

So:

• ⚡ Electricity production could continue

• ⚡ Distribution might be uneven

• ⚡ Some substations could go offline temporarily

  
  

But Paraguay is much better positioned than thermal or nuclear-grid countries.

Why order could be retained

• People can still eat

• Water still flows

• Electricity still exists

• Rural communities already operate semi-autonomously

• Less urban megacity pressure compared to many countries

This matters more than ideology or governance style.

Historically, food + water + energy = social stability.

The biggest national-level weakness: communications & banking

Cellular networks

• Highly likely to fail or degrade severely because:

  • Dependence on international fiber optic cables

  • GPS timing (towers programmed to go offline if they cant synchronize)

  • Centralized switching.

  • Software tables referencing international nodes which would be offline

• Even if towers have power, networks may not authenticate or route

  
  

Banking in Paraguay

Paraguay is especially exposed here because:

• Banking is:

  • Mobile-first

  • App-based

  • Real-time settlement dependent

• ATMs require:

  • Network authorization

  • Interbank clearing

• Card payments require:

  • External payment rails

So:

• ❌ Banking largely freezes

• ❌ Digital payments stop

• ❌ Credit stops

  
  

This is the single most destabilizing factor, not food or electricity.

What would likely happen instead (realistically)

Short term (days–weeks)

• Confusion

• Banking freezes

• Fuel shortages

• Telecom outages

• Government emergency messaging via radio stations

• Family and community barter and sharing

  
  

Medium term (weeks–months)

• Cash-based economy returns

• Barter increases

• Government may:

  • Fix prices

  • Control fuel

  • Coordinate food distribution

• Local governments gain importance

  
  

Long term (months–years)

• Partial telecom restoration

• Reduced but functioning economy

• Stronger local/regional autonomy

• Slower, less centralized systems

  
  

Why Paraguay does better than most countries in this scenario

Compare Paraguay to:

• Highly urbanized countries

• Import-dependent food systems

• Fossil-fuel electricity grids

• Cashless economies

• Individualistic cultures

• Communities highly dependent on infrastructure

Paraguay avoids many of the worst failure cascades.

The absence of cell service is painful, but:

• It does not stop food production

• It does not stop water

• It does not stop electricity generation

• It does not automatically cause mass unrest

It mainly:

• Disrupts coordination

• Freezes finance

• Slows logistics

Those are serious — but manageable, especially with radio and local governance.

Cultural Factors: An Underrated Strength

Paraguay’s culture plays a meaningful role in resilience:

• Strong family networks

• Community orientation

• Lower reliance on centralized systems

• Less social fragmentation

• Practical skills retained across generations

  
  

In crisis scenarios, societies with strong informal support networks tend to maintain order more effectively than highly individualized, system-dependent cultures.

Paraguay is one of the countries most likely to retain basic order, provided the government can coordinate food distribution and maintain public confidence.

In summary, under many models this makes Paraguay one of the safest places on earth in a nuclear war.

Part II — Farm-Level Sustainability and Real Resilience

The first section explains why Paraguay is relatively safe, the second explains why a well-prepared farm changes everything.

1. Energy Redundancy Is the Core Advantage

A layered energy system dramatically reduces vulnerability:

• Primary solar array

• Secondary and tertiary solar backups (disconnected when not in use)

• Small wind generation or micro-hydro (stream or gravity-fed tank outflow) to supplement

• Wood-based thermal energy for cooking and heating

  
  

Even if one system fails — whether from EMP, component failure, or weather — others remain functional. Solar panels are very durable. Inverters fail with time.

Crucially, disconnected backups are naturally EMP-resilient.

2. Water Security Is More Important Than Power

With multiple wells, gravity-fed flow, backup pumps, and storage tanks:

• Drinking water remains available

• Crops can be irrigated

• Animals can be sustained

• Animal products, ash, crops, trees and beeswax create other items necessary for daily survival.

  
  

In almost any long-term disruption scenario, water access determines survival, not electricity.

3. Food, Fuel, and Biological Assets

Long-term viability depends on:

• Trees for fuel, fences and maintenance (w/wire, nails and cement)

• Oils (animal fats, palm oil, olive oil) for cooking, soap, and candles

• Livestock, poultry and eggs

• Bees (wax, honey, pollination)

• Seed stock and perennial crops for human and animal food

These assets convert land into ongoing production, not just stored calories.

4. Medical and Knowledge Resilience

Practical preparedness matters more than extremes:

• Basic antibiotics

• Offline digital libraries (medical, agricultural, repair manuals)

• Herbal and traditional medicine references

  
  

Knowledge — especially offline — becomes a multiplier.

5. Mobility and Vehicles

In a low-EMP-risk region like Paraguay:

• Protecting one vehicle in a steel-enclosed garage is sensible

• Leaving another under a metal roof carport is usually sufficient

• Fully disconnecting vehicles when parked matters more than location

  
  

Electric vehicles are more uncertain under EMP, than say a diesel truck, but modern electric vehicles are not extremely EMP sensitive. Distance from detonation and lack of direct coupling dramatically reduces risk. In practical terms, the difference between full enclosure and partial enclosure in Paraguay is marginal. An EMP detonated anywhere near Venezuela is unlikely to be an EV killing event in Paraguay, unless maybe if it is plugged in to the grid at the time.

6. Security and Community

The greatest long-term risk is not radiation — it is human behavior under stress.

If Paraguay as a country is minimally impacted - it has access to significantly more food water and power than it needs even if cross border trade stopped - then the human behavior risk may be slightly mitigated.

Communications and banking failures initially plus Oil and gas imports may lead to rationing depending on the status of neighbor Brazil (large oil producer). But if the hydro-electric power station stays online, the gas pumps would still work. This is where solar power and an EV come in handy.

If power was down or lack of global connectivity created issues, Paraguay is a cash heavy society already. Some stores trade only in cash anyway. Non-monetary barter for goods such as food, labor or spare parts is already common culturally.

…the result is not “survivalism,” but durable normality — a life that becomes slower and more manual, but remains fundamentally functional.

Final takeaway

If a major global nuclear or EMP event occurred:

• Paraguay would be one of the more stable countries globally

• Life would become slower, cash-based, local

• Phones and internet would likely fail

• Radios would matter

• Farms would matter

• Community would matter

• The country would not collapse — it would simplify

In global crises, resilience is not about preparing for the worst imaginable event. It is about remaining viable when systems fail.

Paraguay, is unusually well-positioned to do exactly that, especially at the farm level.